Climate change impact assessment, flood management, and mitigation strategies in Pakistan for sustainable future.

Affiliation

Khan I(#)(1)(2), Lei H(#)(3), Shah AA(4), Khan I(5), Muhammad I(6).
Author information:
(1)Binjiang College of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, No. 333, Xishan Road, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, China. [Email]
(2)College of Economics & Management, Northwest A&F University, 3 Taicheng Road, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China. [Email]
(3)College of Economics & Management, Northwest A&F University, 3 Taicheng Road, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China.
(4)School of Management Science and Engineering, Ministry of Education & Collaborative Innovation Centre on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters
(CICFEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, China.
(5)School of Management, Northwestern Polytechnic University, Xi'an, China.
(6)Guangxi Key Laboratory of Agric-Environment and Agric-Products Safety, Agricultural College of Guangxi University, Nanning, 530004, China.
(#)Contributed equally

Abstract

In recent years, flooding has not only disrupted social growth but has also hampered economic development. In many nations, this global epidemic has affected lives, property, and financial damage. Pakistan has experienced many floods in the past several years. Due to economic, social, and climate change, Pakistan is at risk of flooding. In order to overcome this problem, the institutions of the country have taken various measures. However, these measures are not sufficient enough to ensure the safety of communities and areas that are prone to disasters with a rapid onset. Hence, it is imperative to forecast future flood-related risks and take necessary measures to mitigate the adverse impacts and losses caused by floods. This article is aimed at exploring floods in Pakistan, analyze the adverse effects of floods on humans and the environment, and propose possible sustainable options for the future. The aqueduct flood analyzer software was used to examine the impact of floods on gross domestic product (GDP), urban damage, and people livelihood, with several years of flood protection plans. To adequately assess the future changes, various flood protection levels and three scenarios for each level of protection were employed, which represent the socio-economic and climate change. The findings revealed that if there is no flood protection, a 2-year flood has a 50% probability of flood occurrence in any given area and may cause no significant impact on GDP, population, and urban damage. Similarly, the probability of a flood occurrence in a five-year flood is 20%, which may cause the country's GDP about $20.4 billion, with 8.4 million population at risk and $1.4 billion urban damage. Furthermore, a 10-year flood has a 10% probability of flood occurrence and may affect the national GDP by $28.9 billion, with 11.9 million affected population and $2.4 billion urban damage in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan should devise appropriate climate change policies, improve disaster preparedness, build new dams, and update relevant departments to mitigate the adverse effects of flooding.