Ghada W(1), Estrella N(2), Pfoerringer D(3), Kanz KG(4), Bogner-Flatz V(5), Ankerst DP(6), Menzel A(7). Author information:
(1)TUM School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising,
Germany. Electronic address: [Email]
(2)TUM School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising,
(3)Klinik und Poliklinik für Unfallchirurgie, Klinikum rechts der Isar,
Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
(4)Klinik und Poliklinik für Unfallchirurgie, Klinikum rechts der Isar,
Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany; Emergency Medical Services
Authority, Munich, Germany.
(5)Emergency Medical Services Authority, Munich, Germany; Department of General,
Trauma and Reconstructive Surgery, Ludwig Maximilians University Hospital
Munich, Munich, Germany.
(6)TUM School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising,
Germany; Department of Mathematics, Technical University of Munich, Garching,
(7)TUM School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising,
Germany; Institute for Advanced Study, Technical University of Munich, Garching,
BACKGROUND: Climate change and increasing risks of extreme weather events affect human health and lead to changes in the emergency department (ED) admissions and the emergency medical services (EMS) operations. For a better allocation of resources in the healthcare system, it is essential to predict ED numbers based on environmental variables. This publication aims to quantify weather, air pollution and calendar-related effects on daily ED admissions. METHODS: Analyses were based on 575,725 admissions from the web-based IVENA system recording all patients in the greater Munich area with pre-hospital emergency care in ambulance operations during 2014-2018. Linear models were used to identify statistically significant associations between daily ED admissions and calendar, meteorological and pollution factors, allowing for lag effects of one to three days. Separate analyses were performed for seasons, with additional subset analyses by sex, age and surgical versus internal department. RESULTS: ED admissions were exceptionally high during the three-week Oktoberfest, particularly for males and on the weekends, as well as during the New Year holiday. Admissions significantly increased during the years of study, decreased in spring and summer holidays, and were lower on Sundays while higher on Mondays. In the warmer seasons, admissions were significantly associated with higher temperature, adjusting for the effects of sunshine and humidity in all age groups except for the elderly. Adverse weather conditions in non-summer seasons were either linked to increasing ED admissions (from storms, gust) or decreasing them from rain. Mostly, but not exclusively, in winter, increasing ED admissions were associated with colder minimum temperatures as well as with higher NO and PM10 concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to standard calendar-related factors, incorporating seasonal weather, air pollutant and interactions with patient demographics into resource planning models can improve the daily allocation of resources and staff of EMS operations at hospital and city levels.
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