Fraud vulnerability quantitative assessment of Wuchang rice industrial chain in China based on AHP-EWM and ANN methods.

Affiliation

Song H(1), Lu B(2), Ye C(3), Li J(4), Zhu Z(5), Zheng L(6).
Author information:
(1)College of Biosystems Engineering and Food Science, National-Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Intelligent Food Technology and Equipment, Key Laboratory for Agro-Products Nutritional Evaluation of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Key Laboratory of Agro-Products Postharvest Handling of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Zhejiang Key Laboratory for Agro-Food Processing, Zhejiang International Scientific and Technological Cooperation Base of Health Food Manufacturing and Quality Control, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; Fuli Institute of Food Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; Ningbo Research Institute, Zhejiang University, Ningbo 315100, China.
(2)College of Biosystems Engineering and Food Science, National-Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Intelligent Food Technology and Equipment, Key Laboratory for Agro-Products Nutritional Evaluation of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Key Laboratory of Agro-Products Postharvest Handling of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Zhejiang Key Laboratory for Agro-Food Processing, Zhejiang International Scientific and Technological Cooperation Base of Health Food Manufacturing and Quality Control, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; Fuli Institute of Food Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; Ningbo Research Institute, Zhejiang University, Ningbo 315100, China. Electronic address: [Email]
(3)China Academy for Rural Development
(CARD), Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
(4)Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, 403 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States.
(5)China National Rice Research Institute, Laboratory of Quality & Safety Risk Assessment for Rice
(Hangzhou), Ministry of Agriculture, China.
(6)Institute of Agricultural Quality Standards and Testing Technology, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Ministry of Rural Products Agricultural Products Quality Standards Research Center, Beijing 100081, China.

Abstract

Vulnerability assessment has been used in the food fraud mitigation based on the subjective judgement of industry participants and simple calculation. To have a more objective result, an improved vulnerability quantitative assessment method was proposed. The overall fraud vulnerability was described by the vulnerability of fraud factors and the health and economic impact of fraud incidents. The fraud factors were related to opportunity, motivation and control measure. Analytic hierarchy process combined with entropy weighting method (AHP-EWM) and artificial neural networking (ANN) to improve judgment accuracy. In the application in Wuchang rice industrial chain, 51 fraud factors were used in the assessment and 10 experts, 36 farmers, 15 suppliers and 15 supervisors were interviewed. Results showed that Wuchang rice industrial chain was highly vulnerable to fraud. The opportunity for fraud was high, the motivation to commit it was moderate, and controls to prevent it needed reinforcing. Fraud vulnerability differed between farmers and suppliers. To reduce the fraud vulnerability, improved regulations and policies and stiffer penalties were strongly recommended.