Spatiotemporal variations in the incidence of bacillary dysentery and long-term effects associated with meteorological and socioeconomic factors in China from 2013 to 2017.

Affiliation

Zhang X(1), Gu X(2), Wang L(3), Zhou Y(4), Huang Z(5), Xu C(6), Cheng C(7).
Author information:
(1)State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
(2)College of Water & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China.
(3)College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, KaiFeng 475001, China; Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions
(Henan University), Ministry of Education, KaiFeng 475001, China.
(4)Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
(5)College of Oceanography and Space Informatics, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China.
(6)State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China. Electronic address: [Email]
(7)State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: [Email]

Abstract

Bacillary dysentery is a global public health problem that exhibits manifest spatiotemporal heterogeneity. However, long-term variations and regional determinant factors remain unclear. In this study, the Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was used to identify the long-term spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the incidence of bacillary dysentery and quantify the associations of meteorological factors with the incidence of bacillary dysentery in northern and southern China from 2013 to 2017. GeoDetector was used to quantify the determinant powers of socioeconomic factors in the two regions. The results showed that the incidence of bacillary dysentery peaked in summer (June to August), indicating temporal seasonality. Geographically, the hot spots (high-risk areas) were distributed in northwestern China (Xinjiang, Gansu, and Ningxia) and northern China (including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei), whereas the cold spots (low-risk areas) were concentrated in southeastern China (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong). Moreover, significant regional differences were found among the meteorological and socioeconomic factors. Average temperature was the dominant meteorological factor in both northern and southern China. In northern and southern China, a 1 °C increase in the average temperature led to an increase of 1.01% and 4.26% in bacillary dysentery risk, respectively. The dominant socioeconomic factors in northern and southern China were per capita gross domestic product and the number of health technicians, with q statistic values of 0.81 and 0.49, respectively. These findings suggest that hot, moist, and overcrowded environments or poor health conditions increase the risk of bacillary dysentery. This study provides suggestions and serves as a basis for surveillance efforts. Further, the suggestions may aid in the control of bacillary dysentery and in the implementation of disease prevention policies.