Rodney P Jones
Journal of Advances In Allergy & Immunologic Diseases
VOLUME: 2 ISSUE: 1
Rodney P Jones, Outbreaks of a presumed infectious pathogen creating on/off switching in deaths(-0001)SDRP Journal of Infectious Diseases Treatment & Therapy 1(1)
There is now increasing international evidence for a series of outbreaks of a presumed infectious pathogen which result in 12-month periods of higher deaths, medical admissions, sickness absence, higher gender ratio at birth, stillbirths and certain congenital abnormalities. This study investigates the increase in deaths accompanying these outbreaks in the UK.
Monthly deaths for local government areas in the UK were analysed using a running (moving) 12-month total. The magnitude of sudden step-like increases in deaths were calculated by comparing successive 12-month periods.
Statistically significant and large increases in death are observed at approximate 2-year intervals across all local government geographies. Such local ‘outbreaks’ aggregate to give periods of higher regional and national deaths.
A new type of infectious outbreak appears to have been identified, with the potential for a profound change in public health policy. The immune modifying virus cytomegalovirus can be circumstantially implicated.
Keywords: Emerging infectious diseases, death, all-cause mortality, spatial analysis, United Kingdom
Jones R (2016) The unprecedented growth in medical admissions in the UK: the ageing population or a possible infectious/immune aetiology? Epidemiology (Sunnyvale) 6(1): 1000219. https://doi.org/10.4172/2161-1165.1000219View Article
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Jones R (2017) Outbreaks of a Presumed Infectious Agent Associated with Changes in Fertility, Stillbirth, Congenital Abnormalities and the Gender Ratio at Birth. British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research 20(8): 1-36. doi: 10.9734/BJMMR/2017/32372View Article
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Jones R (2015) A previously uncharacterized infectious-like event leading to spatial spread of deaths across England and Wales: Characteristics of the most recent event and a time series for past events. British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research 5(11): 1361-1380. doi: 10.9734/BJMMR/2015/14285View Article
Jones R (2015) Recurring Outbreaks of an Infection Apparently Targeting Immune Function, and Consequent Unprecedented Growth in Medical Admission and Costs in the United Kingdom: A Review. British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research 6(8): 735-770. doi: 10.9734/BJMMR/2015/14845View Article
Jones R (2015) A time series of infectious-like events in Australia between 2000 and 2013 leading to extended periods of increased deaths (all-cause mortality) with possible links to increased hospital medical admissions. International Journal of Epidemiologic Research 2(2): 53-67.View Article
Jones R (2015) Deaths and international health care expenditure. Brit J Healthc Manage 21(10): 491-493.View Article
Jones R (2015) Simulated rectangular wave infectious-like events replicate the diversity of time-profiles observed in real-world running 12 month totals of admissions or deaths. Fractal geometry and Nonlinear Analysis in Medicine and Biology 1(3): 78-79. doi: 10.15761/FGNAMB.1000114View Article
Jones R (2016) Deaths in English Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) show patterns of very large shifts indicative of a novel recurring infectious event. SMU Medical Journal 3(2): 23-36.
Jones R (2016) A regular series of unexpected and large increases in total deaths (all-cause mortality) for male and female residents of mid super output areas (MSOA) in England and Wales: How high level analysis can miss the contribution from complex small-area spatial spread of a presumed infectious agent. Fractal Geometry and Nonlinear Analysis in Medicine and Biology 2(2): 1-13.View Article
Jones R (2017) Year-to-year variation in deaths in English Output Areas (OA), and the interaction between a presumed infectious agent and influenza in 2015. SMU Medical Journal 4(2): in press
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Jones R (2016) A presumed infectious event in England and Wales during 2014 and 2015 leading to higher deaths in those with neurological and other disorders. Journal of Neuroinfectious Diseases 7(1): 1000213 doi: 10.4172/2314-7326.1000213View Article
Jones R (2016) Is cytomegalovirus involved in recurring periods of higher than expected death and medical admissions, occurring as clustered outbreaks in the northern and southern hemispheres? British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research 11(2): 1-31. doi: 10.9734/BJMMR/2016/20062View Article
Jones R (2017) Role of social group and gender in outbreaks of a novel agent leading to increased deaths, with insights into higher international deaths in 2015. Fractal Geometry and Nonlinear Analysis in Medicine and Biology 3(1): in press.