Journal of Advances In Allergy & Immunologic Diseases

ISSN: 2575-6184

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Outbreaks of a presumed infectious pathogen creating on/off switching in deaths


Rodney P Jones, Outbreaks of a presumed infectious pathogen creating on/off switching in deaths(-0001)SDRP Journal of Infectious Diseases Treatment & Therapy 1(1)



There is now increasing international evidence for a series of outbreaks of a presumed infectious pathogen which result in 12-month periods of higher deaths, medical admissions, sickness absence, higher gender ratio at birth, stillbirths and certain congenital abnormalities. This study investigates the increase in deaths accompanying these outbreaks in the UK.


Monthly deaths for local government areas in the UK were analysed using a running (moving) 12-month total. The magnitude of sudden step-like increases in deaths were calculated by comparing successive 12-month periods.


Statistically significant and large increases in death are observed at approximate 2-year intervals across all local government geographies. Such local ‘outbreaks’ aggregate to give periods of higher regional and national deaths.


A new type of infectious outbreak appears to have been identified, with the potential for a profound change in public health policy. The immune modifying virus cytomegalovirus can be circumstantially implicated.

Keywords: Emerging infectious diseases, death, all-cause mortality, spatial analysis, United Kingdom


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  19. Jones R (2016) Is cytomegalovirus involved in recurring periods of higher than expected death and medical admissions, occurring as clustered outbreaks in the northern and southern hemispheres? British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research 11(2): 1-31. doi: 10.9734/BJMMR/2016/20062

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