A probabilistic framework for predicting disease dynamics: A case study of psychotic depression.


Institute for Computing and Information Sciences, Radboud University Nijmegen, the Netherlands; Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Uberlândia, Brazil. Electronic address: [Email]


Unsupervised learning is often used to obtain insight into the underlying structure of medical data, but it is not always clear how to use such structure in an effective way. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework for predicting disease dynamics guided by latent states. The framework is based on hidden Markov models and aims to facilitate the selection of hypotheses that might yield insight into the dynamics. We demonstrate this by using clinical trial data for psychotic depression treatment as a case study. The discovered latent structure and proposed outcome are then validated using standard depression criteria, and are shown to provide new insight into the heterogeneity of psychotic depression in terms of predictive symptoms for different interventions.


Depression,Hidden Markov model,Latent variables,Machine learning,Psychiatry,Temporal data,