Development of a concise clinical index for predicting chronic chikungunya arthritis.


Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Colima, Av. Universidad 333, Col. Las Víboras, C.P. 28040, Colima, Colima, México; Unidad de Investigación en Epidemiología Clínica, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Av. de los Maestros No. 149, Col. Centro, C.P. 28000, Colima, Colima, México. Electronic address: [Email]


OBJECTIVE : To evaluate the performance of an instrument for predicting chronic chikungunya arthritis (CCA) in adult patients.
METHODS : A diagnostic test study was conducted and data from 217 confirmed cases of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) illness were analyzed. Two chronic chikungunya arthralgia scales (3-item CCAS-3 and 4-item CCAS-4) were constructed.
RESULTS : Modest performance of the CCAS-3 scale was documented at the two given cut-off points. A CCAS-4 score ≥3 showed high sensitivity and specificity for predicting the persistence of CCA at 12 months after acute disease.
CONCLUSIONS : If replicated in other populations, these results could be useful in the medical management of patients with symptomatic CHIKV infection.


Arthralgia,Chikungunya virus,Chronic pain,Predictive value of tests,

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